Tina Smith is on her way out. Peggy Flanagan just won the DFL nomination to take her Minnesota Senate seat, which means Smith is officially a lame-duck senator with a disclosure filing that's gotten more interesting than her final term. On March 31, Smith dumped up to $350,000 across three positions in a single day. 3M Company, Barnes Group, and Berkshire Hathaway Class B. All sales. All the same date. That's the thing about lame ducks: they still have to file.
The Exit Conversation
It's about what she represents as a slot in Minnesota politics. Flanagan's DFL primary win set off the familiar Democratic debate about Al Franken's 2017 resignation and whether the party machine plays procedural favorites. Smith, who was appointed to Franken's seat and has served without incident, is mostly getting used as a reference point in other people's arguments. She's the answer to a trivia question about what happened after Franken left.
Fine. But Blind Trust is not here for the trivia. We're here for the disclosure record.
One Day. Three Sales. Up to $350,000 Out the Door.
March 31, 2026. Smith filed three transactions, all sales:
- 3M Company (MMM): $50,000 to 00,000
- Barnes Group (B): 00,000 to $250,000
- Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK/B): 00,000 to $250,000
That's a combined disclosed range of $250,000 to $600,000 out in a single trading day. Call it $350,000 at the midpoint. Senators are allowed to disclose in ranges, which is one of those rules that tells you everything about who writes the rules.
Two of those sales look, in retrospect, like good timing. The 30-day alpha on the 3M sale: negative 8.9 percent. The 30-day alpha on the Barnes Group sale: negative 13.4 percent. The Barnes Group number is the one that earns a second look. Selling 00,000 to $250,000 of a stock that fell 13.4 percent in the following month is a better outcome than most retail investors managed.
The Berkshire Hathaway sale is the quiet one. No flagged overlap, no dramatic post-sale drop listed in the standout data. But it's still 00,000 to $250,000 out the door on the same day as the other two. Portfolio spring cleaning, or a coordinated exit? The calendar doesn't say. Neither will we.
The Barnes Group Overlap Is the One to Watch
Barnes Group sits on the Financial Services committee overlap list. Smith's sale of 00,000 to $250,000 in Barnes Group cleared on March 31. Six days earlier, on March 25, she voted on a joint resolution rolling back an IRS rule about clean electricity production credits. Seven days before that, on March 24, she voted on a joint resolution directing the removal of U.S. Armed forces from hostilities with Iran.
Trade date: March 31. Relevant vote dates: March 25 and March 24. Days between: six and seven, respectively.
The suspicion scores our model assigned to these overlaps: 56.6 and 55.4, on a scale where anything above 50 gets flagged. Not the highest numbers we've ever printed. Not nothing, either.
The 3M overlap tells the same structural story. Sale on March 31. Votes on March 25 and March 24. Six days, then seven days. Suspicion scores of 58.2 and 57.1. The IRS clean energy credit vote and the Iran authorization vote are the two legislative anchors here. Smith voted Yea on both. The trades followed within a week.
Correlation and causation are different things. The filings state what they state. The calendar is what it is. The interpretation is yours.
What the Iran Votes Actually Were
This was not a one-time vote. Smith voted four separate times on motions to discharge a joint resolution directing removal of U.S. Forces from hostilities with Iran: March 18, March 24, April 22, and April 30. All Yea. All rejected except the May 19 version, which passed as a motion to discharge.
She's been consistent. She's also been selling defense-adjacent holdings in the same window. 3M Company, for context, is a major government contractor with defense exposure. Barnes Group makes precision components and aerospace parts. These are not consumer staples plays. The Venn diagram between "companies that care about U.S. Military engagement" and "what Smith was selling" has considerable overlap.
We're not saying she connected those dots. We're saying the dots are there and they're in the public record.
The CFPB Votes: On the Right Side of Her Own Portfolio
Smith's most recent high-profile votes are three motions to proceed on resolutions disapproving CFPB rule withdrawals: one on medical debt collection practices, one on overdraft opt-in practices, one on protections for active-duty servicemembers. She voted Yea on all three, trying to restore consumer protections the current CFPB has been walking back. All three motions failed.
Her Barnes Group sale carries a Financial Services committee overlap flag. The CFPB votes are squarely in the financial services lane. Barnes Group makes industrial components, not bank accounts, so the overlap here is structural rather than substantive: her committee work touched financial regulation; her largest disclosed sale touched a company flagged against that committee. The flag is the system working as designed. Whether the design is adequate is a separate question Congress has declined to answer.
The Longer Pattern: Four Flagged Sales in Seven Months
March 31 was not Smith's first disclosure worth noting. Her full record shows two earlier sales that also landed with negative 30-day alpha:
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN): Sold 00,000 to $250,000 on November 21, 2025. 30-day alpha: negative 1.1 percent.
- Marsh & McLennan (MRSH): Sold $50,000 to 00,000 on January 27, 2026. 30-day alpha: negative 1.2 percent.
These are smaller negative alpha numbers. But the direction is consistent: four disclosed sales with available post-trade data, four negative alpha readings. Negative 1.1, negative 1.2, negative 8.9, negative 13.4. The sequence is getting worse, or the sales are getting better-timed, depending on how you read it.
Members are required to disclose. They are not required to divest, recuse, abstain, blush, or look up from their phones.
Lame Duck Disclosure Math
Smith is not running again. Flanagan is the DFL nominee and the heavy favorite to hold the seat. That makes Smith's remaining months in office a wind-down, not a relaunch. It also means any political cost of scrutiny is lower for her than for most members.
What it doesn't change: the disclosure obligations still apply. Every trade still gets filed. Every vote still gets recorded. The calendar still lines up the way it lines up.
One March day. Three sales. Up to $350,000. Two of them down double digits in the following month. Votes on clean energy credits and Iran war powers in the six days prior. A Financial Services committee overlap on the worst performer of the three. This is the filing. This is the vote log. This is the calendar.
The receipts are public. Make of them what you make of them.