If you believe the United States and Iran are six weeks away from signing a permanent peace deal, Polymarket will pay you $2.90 for every dollar you put up. The market is currently pricing that outcome at 34.5 cents — the crowd's considered opinion, expressed in $8,581,934 of real money, that the thing almost certainly doesn't happen. The price hasn't moved a single basis point in 24 hours. The bettors have priced this in and gone for coffee.
The Number
Thirty-four and a half cents on YES. Sixty-five and a half cents on NO. On a market that resolves May 31, 2026 — meaning the deadline for a "permanent peace deal" between Washington and Tehran is, as of today, roughly three weeks out.
Three weeks. For a permanent peace deal. Between the United States and a country the State Department has listed as a state sponsor of terrorism every single year since 1984.
The market is not impressed.
What the Volume Actually Says
The US x Iran permanent peace deal market has done $8,581,934 in total volume. Over the last 24 hours it did $530,519 of that — roughly 6 percent of all-time volume in a single day. Money is still moving, which means people are still forming and updating opinions in real time, and the price is sitting exactly where it was yesterday.
High 24-hour volume with zero price movement points in one direction: a large directional bet came in and got absorbed without budging the book. The recent trade tape confirms it.
The Recent Tape
The two largest recent prints on this market tell the story.
On May 12, a wallet bought 136,834 NO shares at 65 cents a share. Notional: $88,942. One position, nearly ninety thousand dollars, saying this deal doesn't happen.
Before that, on May 7, a different wallet bought 88,514 YES shares at around 57 cents. Notional: $50,311. Someone was more optimistic about the state of diplomacy that week, and paid more per share to express it than the current market price would support.
Whoever bought YES at 57 cents is now holding a position worth 34.5 cents per share — a paper loss of roughly $20,000 on a $50,000 bet in five days. Diplomatic optimism is an expensive habit.
Polymarket wallets are pseudonymous and the venue settles in USDC offshore. We don't know who is behind either position. The tape is what it is.
The Liquidity Picture
Current liquidity sits at $673,763. For a geopolitical long shot, that's a deep book — this question has attracted genuine interest, not just retail flutter. Thin markets move on small orders. This one has absorbed almost nine million dollars and is still sitting at the same price it opened the week at.
The $530,519 in 24-hour volume against $673,763 in book depth means roughly 79 cents of yesterday's trading for every dollar of available liquidity. The market is being actively contested. The price just refuses to move.
What 34 Cents Actually Means
A prediction market price is a crowd probability estimate. At 34.5 cents, bettors are saying there's roughly a one-in-three chance of a US-Iran permanent peace agreement getting signed by the end of May 2026. Three weeks ago this market was pricing YES considerably higher — the May 7 YES buyer paid 57 cents and presumably thought that was fair value.
Something shifted between May 7 and May 12. The $88,942 NO purchase is probably part of the story, but news out of the region in that window clearly didn't help the bulls either.
"Permanent peace deal" is also doing a lot of work in the question. A framework agreement, a ceasefire, a memorandum of understanding, a handshake in Geneva: none of those necessarily resolve YES. The question requires permanent peace. Between the US and Iran. By the end of May.
The word "permanent" is load-bearing. Bettors are pricing accordingly.
Three Weeks Left
This market resolves in roughly three weeks. The price has been flat for 24 hours on half a million dollars of volume. No named politicians in the question, no single vote or filing to point at — just a crowd of pseudonymous wallets and their collective read on whether the most intractable bilateral relationship in the Western hemisphere gets resolved before June.
At $8.6 million total, this is one of the larger geopolitical markets currently running on the platform. You can see the full feed of active positions at Blind Trust PolyPlays. The Iran peace market is deep, liquid, and almost entirely at rest.
The receipts are public. Make of them what you make of them.