Blind Trust · Editorial

US-Iran Peace at 62¢: $1.6M Bettors Say Deal More Likely Than Not by Year-End 2026

Polymarket bettors have priced a permanent US-Iran peace deal at better than even odds on $1.6M total volume. The price didn't move a tick in 24 hours despite $310K cycling through. That kind of flatness on that kind of volume is its own signal.